My general view is that any outbreak of a non-novel virus, provided that the virus hasn't mutated significantly, is very unlikely to become a pandemic, simply because if it were that transmissible it probably would have already caused one by now. Andes hantavirus seems to spill over into the human population fairly regularly in Argentina; if it were going to spread in a sustained way, why hasn't it done that already?
Personally, I found the recent meningitis outbreak in Kent, England much more concerning - more cases in a shorter timespan, with the virus behaving completely differently to any previous outbreak. In fact, even with the outbreak over we still don't know why it happened. I was surprised that it didn't get more attention outside the UK.
> My general view is that any outbreak of a non-novel virus, provided that the virus hasn't mutated significantly, is very unlikely to become a pandemic, simply because if it were that transmissible it probably would have already caused one by now.
Agree, my P( mutation | hantavirus causes a pandemic) is very high, maybe > 90%.
I would have loved to see more discussion on why we don't expect the hantavirus to mutate or has mutated without us noticing, given it's most of the probability mass for a pandemic.
AP reported that “more than two dozen” people from at least 12 countries left the ship without contact tracing on April 24, and that the operator later put the number at 30 passengers while the Dutch Foreign Ministry put it around 40. This was before the first confirmed shipboard hantavirus case on May 2.
1. How likely is pre-symptomatic or very-early-symptomatic transmission from any April 24 disembarker before they were traced/isolated?
2. Who might the symptomatic Dutch woman have infected after leaving St. Helena, on the St. Helena → Johannesburg travel/hospital chain? Is it possible to trace them all?
Thanks Peter. Really appreciate the blog. Standard forecasting response to your piece but what are you confidence intervals and what would make you change your mind? What key pieces of information in what time frame would cause you to reframe your probabilities? My understanding is that:
- asymptomatic transmission is possible for 48hr before symptoms which increases the probability of spread and thus increases chance of cases not from the cruise
- transmission is likely not just via close contact and is has at least some element of airborne transmission eg the people on the same flight as the dutch lady caught it (although its likely not as contagious as something like SARS)
- the passengers who disembarked the cruise on the 23rd of April were not (are currently not?) adhering to any containment measures so may have been/may still be spreading
- high probability of false negatives on the PCR tests (spanish/american/french cases have shown ppl were testing negative negative negative then suddenly positive) suggesting that there may be a lot more cases than we currently suspect
- the 2018/19 spread was only successfully stopped due to pretty harsh enforcement measures on the community (akin to Western covid lockdowns) meaning if there is possibility of spreading outside the boat, it could spread quite quickly
I have the probability of a pandemic low, but probability of more than 5 cases not on the cruise by August as around 20%
Holding people hostage is a crime. There are apparently already 3 deaths related to these activities. Probably caused by “treatments” provided by the hostage takers. They should be investigated for manslaughter/ murder. Which toxcic drugs were used to kill the hostages?
My general view is that any outbreak of a non-novel virus, provided that the virus hasn't mutated significantly, is very unlikely to become a pandemic, simply because if it were that transmissible it probably would have already caused one by now. Andes hantavirus seems to spill over into the human population fairly regularly in Argentina; if it were going to spread in a sustained way, why hasn't it done that already?
Personally, I found the recent meningitis outbreak in Kent, England much more concerning - more cases in a shorter timespan, with the virus behaving completely differently to any previous outbreak. In fact, even with the outbreak over we still don't know why it happened. I was surprised that it didn't get more attention outside the UK.
> My general view is that any outbreak of a non-novel virus, provided that the virus hasn't mutated significantly, is very unlikely to become a pandemic, simply because if it were that transmissible it probably would have already caused one by now.
Agree, my P( mutation | hantavirus causes a pandemic) is very high, maybe > 90%.
I would have loved to see more discussion on why we don't expect the hantavirus to mutate or has mutated without us noticing, given it's most of the probability mass for a pandemic.
AP reported that “more than two dozen” people from at least 12 countries left the ship without contact tracing on April 24, and that the operator later put the number at 30 passengers while the Dutch Foreign Ministry put it around 40. This was before the first confirmed shipboard hantavirus case on May 2.
https://apnews.com/article/hantavirus-cruise-ship-st-helena-9c70878b2ff59d187f1e34c12627cea7
So I think the remaining cruxes are:
1. How likely is pre-symptomatic or very-early-symptomatic transmission from any April 24 disembarker before they were traced/isolated?
2. Who might the symptomatic Dutch woman have infected after leaving St. Helena, on the St. Helena → Johannesburg travel/hospital chain? Is it possible to trace them all?
Thanks for this prompt and thoughtful analysis!
Thanks Peter. Really appreciate the blog. Standard forecasting response to your piece but what are you confidence intervals and what would make you change your mind? What key pieces of information in what time frame would cause you to reframe your probabilities? My understanding is that:
- asymptomatic transmission is possible for 48hr before symptoms which increases the probability of spread and thus increases chance of cases not from the cruise
- transmission is likely not just via close contact and is has at least some element of airborne transmission eg the people on the same flight as the dutch lady caught it (although its likely not as contagious as something like SARS)
- the passengers who disembarked the cruise on the 23rd of April were not (are currently not?) adhering to any containment measures so may have been/may still be spreading
- high probability of false negatives on the PCR tests (spanish/american/french cases have shown ppl were testing negative negative negative then suddenly positive) suggesting that there may be a lot more cases than we currently suspect
- the 2018/19 spread was only successfully stopped due to pretty harsh enforcement measures on the community (akin to Western covid lockdowns) meaning if there is possibility of spreading outside the boat, it could spread quite quickly
I have the probability of a pandemic low, but probability of more than 5 cases not on the cruise by August as around 20%
Holding people hostage is a crime. There are apparently already 3 deaths related to these activities. Probably caused by “treatments” provided by the hostage takers. They should be investigated for manslaughter/ murder. Which toxcic drugs were used to kill the hostages?
https://odysee.com/@januszkowalskii1979:e/The-Antivirals-(Dr.-Sam-Bailey):6