Peter, your work is always as good as it gets. Thank you for everything you do!
Hoping for an update from you on METR’s time horizon eval results for Opus 4.5 (4 hrs 49 mins) whenever they publish the full results. If the 7 month doubling time holds, we’d get near week long tasks by September 2028. METR sets their AI R&D automation threat model (which is >10x’ing an AI researcher’s speed) at 40 hrs
So in that world, things basically are unchanged ex Maduro?
I think it is probably true that someone within the Maduro government sold out Maduro--maybe a lot of people. Delcy Rodriguez's posture so far doesn't seem like she is that person (still claiming Maduro is president from Russia).
After a US backed transitional government, I would guess they do elect Machado, but I don't know who the literal next person is either.
On the other hand - Trump and his admin keep talking about Rodriguez like she's on their side, at least somewhat. This could be Trumpworld just not being that competent (plausible imo) or it could be that she actually is and they're just bad at keeping a secret, which is a slightly different kind of incompetence. Not sure it's >50% likely she had sold out Maduro before this in any way but it seems plausible to me. Like 35%? Admittedly I wasn't following internal Venezuelan politics super closely before this so maybe I'm missing something.
I'm sure Rodriguez would say that even if she'd personally coordinated Maduro's capture. That's how you keep a regime together. Unity in public, backstab in private, and the one doing the backstabbing talks loudest about how loyal they are.
I found your reference to the Abraham Accords somewhat glib. If something is indeed "superficial", whether it's "durable" or not is not the important question, is it?
The "superficial" argument was that these countries were already friendly with Israel, and formalizing it in terms of "Accords" didn't require that much work.
Is there anything significant that the Accords claimed to have achieved, which was:
Good question. In my opinion, the formalization itself did matter. UAE-Israel went from covert intelligence cooperation to open diplomatic relations, direct flights, and bilateral trade. You can argue the trajectory was already there, but a shift "already friendly behind closed doors" from "openly normalized with embassies and commercial ties" is a real shift that's hard to reverse and that enables institutional cooperation at a scale that backchannel relationships don't.
Morocco and Sudan are weaker examples, sure. Those were more transactional (Western Sahara recognition and terror list removal respectively), and Sudan's normalization has basically stalled given their civil war.
But the bigger significance was arguably the demonstration effect - showing that Arab states could normalize with Israel without resolving the Palestinian question first, which broke a decades-long consensus. Whether you think that's good is a separate question, but it was a genuine shift in the regional diplomatic landscape that wasn't happening on its own timeline.
UAE trade etc. seem a significant achievement of the Accords. Limited, perhaps.
---
To me, an important aspect was the strategic alignment against Iran.
Seems to me that, for now, the Arab states have worked out a modus vivendi with the Iranian govt., and are not eager for it to fall. Lest it create instability in the region. I read news reports that Arab states (and even Israel) were counseling Trump to not attack.
So, in that aspect, that re-alignment didn't progress much, if at all?
"Whether this was collapse, capitulation, or negotiated exit, the result is the same: for the first time since the US toppled Panama’s dictator Noriega in 1990, the United States has forcibly removed a sitting head of state from power."
I think you could argue that Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya are also cases of this.
To be fair, I believe Europe deserves more blame for Libya than the US does.
Anyways, I think it is good that Trump is willing to work pragmatically with authoritarians. Insofar as Trump manages to outperform Bush and Obama, I suspect this will be his key advantage. Hopefully the country will learn a lesson from it.
Nice summary! I'm not sure the Abraham Accords are a great example here though. Would love to hear more about that. the other examples of Soleimani and Fordow are also quite some distance from deposing a head of state. But I'll agree with you that what happens next is very unclear!
Peter, your work is always as good as it gets. Thank you for everything you do!
Hoping for an update from you on METR’s time horizon eval results for Opus 4.5 (4 hrs 49 mins) whenever they publish the full results. If the 7 month doubling time holds, we’d get near week long tasks by September 2028. METR sets their AI R&D automation threat model (which is >10x’ing an AI researcher’s speed) at 40 hrs
I have a METR thingy in the works!
I think we'll need to revisit the 40 hours number. As agent harnesses get better, the agent time horizon itself might become less critical.
Who is your best bet for the next leader of Venezuela?
I guess I'd bet on Delcy Rodríguez
So in that world, things basically are unchanged ex Maduro?
I think it is probably true that someone within the Maduro government sold out Maduro--maybe a lot of people. Delcy Rodriguez's posture so far doesn't seem like she is that person (still claiming Maduro is president from Russia).
After a US backed transitional government, I would guess they do elect Machado, but I don't know who the literal next person is either.
On the other hand - Trump and his admin keep talking about Rodriguez like she's on their side, at least somewhat. This could be Trumpworld just not being that competent (plausible imo) or it could be that she actually is and they're just bad at keeping a secret, which is a slightly different kind of incompetence. Not sure it's >50% likely she had sold out Maduro before this in any way but it seems plausible to me. Like 35%? Admittedly I wasn't following internal Venezuelan politics super closely before this so maybe I'm missing something.
I'm sure Rodriguez would say that even if she'd personally coordinated Maduro's capture. That's how you keep a regime together. Unity in public, backstab in private, and the one doing the backstabbing talks loudest about how loyal they are.
Well done lol
If you were a diplomat, this cable would win an award. Really grounded, nuanced assessment. Bravo!
I found your reference to the Abraham Accords somewhat glib. If something is indeed "superficial", whether it's "durable" or not is not the important question, is it?
The "superficial" argument was that these countries were already friendly with Israel, and formalizing it in terms of "Accords" didn't require that much work.
Is there anything significant that the Accords claimed to have achieved, which was:
1. Achieved
2. Not possible without the Accords?
Good question. In my opinion, the formalization itself did matter. UAE-Israel went from covert intelligence cooperation to open diplomatic relations, direct flights, and bilateral trade. You can argue the trajectory was already there, but a shift "already friendly behind closed doors" from "openly normalized with embassies and commercial ties" is a real shift that's hard to reverse and that enables institutional cooperation at a scale that backchannel relationships don't.
Morocco and Sudan are weaker examples, sure. Those were more transactional (Western Sahara recognition and terror list removal respectively), and Sudan's normalization has basically stalled given their civil war.
But the bigger significance was arguably the demonstration effect - showing that Arab states could normalize with Israel without resolving the Palestinian question first, which broke a decades-long consensus. Whether you think that's good is a separate question, but it was a genuine shift in the regional diplomatic landscape that wasn't happening on its own timeline.
UAE trade etc. seem a significant achievement of the Accords. Limited, perhaps.
---
To me, an important aspect was the strategic alignment against Iran.
Seems to me that, for now, the Arab states have worked out a modus vivendi with the Iranian govt., and are not eager for it to fall. Lest it create instability in the region. I read news reports that Arab states (and even Israel) were counseling Trump to not attack.
So, in that aspect, that re-alignment didn't progress much, if at all?
Thank you for writing this, very helpful overview!
Thanks! Glad you liked it!
Good overview, thanks!
But I'm wondering about what the frankly kind-of insane list of charges is about, and whether it tells us anything about the Trump admin's plan; https://x.com/davidmanheim/status/2007802195077673460
https://x.com/davidmanheim/status/2007804681481846835
Great writing!
Thank you!
"Whether this was collapse, capitulation, or negotiated exit, the result is the same: for the first time since the US toppled Panama’s dictator Noriega in 1990, the United States has forcibly removed a sitting head of state from power."
I think you could argue that Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya are also cases of this.
None of which went particularly well, despite the "we'll be greeted as liberators" rhetoric: https://www.philippelemoine.com/p/the-case-against-liberal-imperialism
To be fair, I believe Europe deserves more blame for Libya than the US does.
Anyways, I think it is good that Trump is willing to work pragmatically with authoritarians. Insofar as Trump manages to outperform Bush and Obama, I suspect this will be his key advantage. Hopefully the country will learn a lesson from it.
this is good
Peter, can you turn on the AI reader for this? It shows up for some posts, but not for others. Cant make sense of it.
Thoughtful, unbiased, high-signal masterpiece.
Great article.
Minor: this link https://news.sky.com/story/venezuela-latest-explosions-heard-in-capital-of-caracas-13489831 doesn't link to the relevant point ("negotiated exit") I think it shows a rolling set of updates about the situation.
What about the 25,000 Cuban military, intelligence and organisers in the country? Won't they influence what happens next?
Nice summary! I'm not sure the Abraham Accords are a great example here though. Would love to hear more about that. the other examples of Soleimani and Fordow are also quite some distance from deposing a head of state. But I'll agree with you that what happens next is very unclear!
Greenland ?
Yes would love an analysis of Greenland from Peter.