Great post. I really appreciated how you laid out the state of play, and then explained the scenarios. All the links to external sources were very helpful.
Scenario 4 is feeling a bit more likely to me after this morning.
This is great, really helpful structure for thinking about the possible outcomes.
I wonder about this line - "it’s also clearly what Russia would prefer" - in scenario #2 though. It seems like in this scenario, Russia has the upper hand / initiative, so why not just keep grinding things out and pushing for more territory? Worst case they just come back and take the deal later on, best case they gain more territory and maybe trigger #4. So I might personally move a bit do the weight from #2 to the other outcomes.
Or, do you think their position is itself somewhat precarious due to economic factors, and so they are actually incentivize to end things sooner rather than later?
My sense is that Russia would love it if international legitimacy was given to its new territorial claims and then given some sanction relief and opportunity to rebuild. I wouldn't expect Russia to abide by a ceasefire longer-term as long as Putin is in power.
To me, the most likely scenario (60%) is the status quo -- Russia continues to battle and make incremental gains. I don't think they make serious headway, but rather more grinding, slow progress.
I think Ukraine would probably accept your scenario #2 but, in my view, I think Russia will probably ask for more. E.g., for Ukraine to either cede more territory (that Russia doesn't control), or agree to place limits on its armed forces in a way that would make it easy pickings for a future invasion. Putin will agree to a ceasefire if Zelensky agrees to an election -- where Russia will try to get someone more favorable to them elected (someone they can bribe). After that, though, Putin would drive a hard bargain for a long-term peace deal with European troops in Ukraine to guard the peace. I think the price would be as I mentioned above -- if Ukraine willingly cedes more territory, or agrees to disassemble its own military. In addition, Ukraine would also likely be forced to accept a number of symbolic humiliations to make it clear who the winners and losers of the war are.
Given the Kremlin propaganda coming out of the White House, and the favorable trends in politics generally, Putin must feel on the cusp of a complete route in Ukraine and will take a hard bargain for peace. It doesn't seem to me that Trump is followingly the details of what each side wants enough to get his goal of a cease-fire. It will happen, though, if Zelensky agrees to an election with something up his sleeve as well (swap himself out for Zaluzhnyi). In this case though, I think Putin would let his artillery factories and recruitment offices run at full tilt for 6-9 months and then re-invade.
There are three scenarios for peace:
1. Putin is more sick of the war, and more worried with Russia's 20% inflation rate, than I realize. (The ruble is on fire recently -- seems the market sees some chance of peace.) Maybe he'll settle with what they've got. I give this 10-20%'ish?
2. Europe gives Ukraine significant air power and other resources, and these then make it clear to Putin that he's at risk of losing some of his gains unless he goes for peace. I give this scenario 5-10%. (This and the previous point, and the next one, are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Perhaps some element of each could be in play.)
3. Trump realizes that no end to the war is in sight, and decides to vastly increase aid to get Russia to agree to a reasonable deal like your #2. Maybe he just says he'll send 100 F-35s if Russia doesn't sign a deal. Russia will call the bluff and T will have to actually send them, but once there maybe Putin signs.
4. The war just kind of freezes along current lines and peters out.
I would be interested in the author’s thoughts regarding the likelihood of US successfully breaching the Russia-China axis. I think Putin is far too wily to be so easily distracted and will play both sides, extracting what he can. I am often surprised how little discussion there is of the complete reversal of fortune that we see regarding the fates of Russia & China over a mere 50 years. It is quite the humiliation for Russia and one that Putin must surely be aware of.
Great post. I really appreciated how you laid out the state of play, and then explained the scenarios. All the links to external sources were very helpful.
Scenario 4 is feeling a bit more likely to me after this morning.
This is great, really helpful structure for thinking about the possible outcomes.
I wonder about this line - "it’s also clearly what Russia would prefer" - in scenario #2 though. It seems like in this scenario, Russia has the upper hand / initiative, so why not just keep grinding things out and pushing for more territory? Worst case they just come back and take the deal later on, best case they gain more territory and maybe trigger #4. So I might personally move a bit do the weight from #2 to the other outcomes.
Or, do you think their position is itself somewhat precarious due to economic factors, and so they are actually incentivize to end things sooner rather than later?
My sense is that Russia would love it if international legitimacy was given to its new territorial claims and then given some sanction relief and opportunity to rebuild. I wouldn't expect Russia to abide by a ceasefire longer-term as long as Putin is in power.
Very nice post.
To me, the most likely scenario (60%) is the status quo -- Russia continues to battle and make incremental gains. I don't think they make serious headway, but rather more grinding, slow progress.
I think Ukraine would probably accept your scenario #2 but, in my view, I think Russia will probably ask for more. E.g., for Ukraine to either cede more territory (that Russia doesn't control), or agree to place limits on its armed forces in a way that would make it easy pickings for a future invasion. Putin will agree to a ceasefire if Zelensky agrees to an election -- where Russia will try to get someone more favorable to them elected (someone they can bribe). After that, though, Putin would drive a hard bargain for a long-term peace deal with European troops in Ukraine to guard the peace. I think the price would be as I mentioned above -- if Ukraine willingly cedes more territory, or agrees to disassemble its own military. In addition, Ukraine would also likely be forced to accept a number of symbolic humiliations to make it clear who the winners and losers of the war are.
Given the Kremlin propaganda coming out of the White House, and the favorable trends in politics generally, Putin must feel on the cusp of a complete route in Ukraine and will take a hard bargain for peace. It doesn't seem to me that Trump is followingly the details of what each side wants enough to get his goal of a cease-fire. It will happen, though, if Zelensky agrees to an election with something up his sleeve as well (swap himself out for Zaluzhnyi). In this case though, I think Putin would let his artillery factories and recruitment offices run at full tilt for 6-9 months and then re-invade.
There are three scenarios for peace:
1. Putin is more sick of the war, and more worried with Russia's 20% inflation rate, than I realize. (The ruble is on fire recently -- seems the market sees some chance of peace.) Maybe he'll settle with what they've got. I give this 10-20%'ish?
2. Europe gives Ukraine significant air power and other resources, and these then make it clear to Putin that he's at risk of losing some of his gains unless he goes for peace. I give this scenario 5-10%. (This and the previous point, and the next one, are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Perhaps some element of each could be in play.)
3. Trump realizes that no end to the war is in sight, and decides to vastly increase aid to get Russia to agree to a reasonable deal like your #2. Maybe he just says he'll send 100 F-35s if Russia doesn't sign a deal. Russia will call the bluff and T will have to actually send them, but once there maybe Putin signs.
4. The war just kind of freezes along current lines and peters out.
I hadn't finished. Scenarios #3 and #4 look increasingly unlikely. I might bump the status quo here up to closer to 70%.
I would be interested in the author’s thoughts regarding the likelihood of US successfully breaching the Russia-China axis. I think Putin is far too wily to be so easily distracted and will play both sides, extracting what he can. I am often surprised how little discussion there is of the complete reversal of fortune that we see regarding the fates of Russia & China over a mere 50 years. It is quite the humiliation for Russia and one that Putin must surely be aware of.