The Power Law

How banned AI chips end up in China

AI chips and servers reach China through distribution chains in which each seller vets only its direct customers, and no one is on the hook for what…

May 18 • Erich Grunewald

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Hantavirus won't be the next COVID

A forecaster's breakdown of the Hondius cruise ship outbreak

May 11 • Peter Wildeford

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April 2026

Mythos is just the beginning

If you were waiting for a sign that superintelligence is coming, this is it

Apr 20 • Peter Wildeford

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March 2026

China Is Reverse-Engineering America’s Best AI Models

How AI distillation attacks risk extracting US frontier AI at scale

Mar 16 • Peter Wildeford and Theo Bearman

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February 2026

The Pentagon's War on Anthropic

The Pentagon has a legitimate principle, and a terrible strategy for enforcing it

Feb 27 • Peter Wildeford

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January 2026

The case for paying whistleblowers to report on export violations

A bipartisan, bicameral bill would apply the SEC’s successful whistleblower incentive model to export enforcement

Jan 29 • Erich Grunewald

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Maduro has been captured. What's next?

The operation was flawless. What comes next is anyone's guess.

Jan 3 • Peter Wildeford

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December 2025

My template for a quarterly review + plan

A free Google doc template for the system I actually use

Dec 22, 2025 • Peter Wildeford

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Ronny Chieng and I investigate the promises of AI

I was on the Daily Show!

Dec 5, 2025 • Peter Wildeford

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November 2025

Will competition over advanced AI lead to war?

Fear and Fearon

Nov 21, 2025 • Oscar Delaney

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Should the US do a Manhattan Project for AGI?

Such a Project is neither inevitable nor a good idea

Nov 20, 2025 • Peter Wildeford and Oscar Delaney

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AI Ran Its First Autonomous Cyberattack

Chinese hackers used AI and changed the economics of cyberattacks

Nov 15, 2025 • Peter Wildeford

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